XAUUSD H4 Outlook, 5 November 2026: Bullish BOS Into October Supply, Liquidity Above

Market analysis · XAUUSD · H4 · 5 November 2026 · Outlook

Educational analysis only. Not investment advice or a trade signal. Chart captured 5 November 2026, 23:18 UTC+3, ahead of the US jobs report on Friday 6 November (16:30 EAT).

Summary. Gold has broken structure to the upside on the 4-hour chart after the early-November low and is now trading into the supply zone left by the October breakdown, with resting buy-side liquidity just above it. The working view is that this rally is a correction inside a broader bearish H4 structure. The question for the next sessions is whether price sweeps that liquidity and rejects, or accepts above it and invalidates the idea.

1. Context

• Gold sold off through late September and spent the first half of October in a range that printed a series of lower highs.
• On 22 October price broke below the mid-October low near 4,075, a bearish break of structure, and went on to make lower lows on 25 October and again on 2 November near 3,870.
• The post-midterm move then lifted gold back above 4,000 on a weaker dollar (see the XAUUSD Outlook, 4–6 November).
• The October US jobs report is due on Friday 6 November at 16:30 EAT (see the NFP Preview).

2. Structure

• Higher timeframe bias: bearish since the October break, with lower highs on the way down.
• Short-term shift: on 4 November price broke above the 29 October high near 4,085, a bullish break of structure and the first sign of short-term buyers taking control.
• Where price is now: about 4,107 at capture, inside the supply zone that launched the October breakdown.

3. Liquidity and zones

• Supply zone: roughly 4,105 to 4,142, the origin of the October breakdown. Price is trading inside it.
• Buy-side liquidity: resting above the zone, roughly 4,150 to 4,190.
• Demand: a small area around 4,060 to 4,066, where the latest impulse began.
• Round number: 4,000.
• Lower reference areas: the 2 November swing low near 3,870, and a deeper range in the 3,600s.

4. Scenarios

Primary working view

A sweep of the buy-side liquidity above the zone, followed by rejection and a return below the demand area. That would reopen the early-November lows and, over the following sessions, the deeper 3,600s range. The projected path on the chart sketches this route; it is a planning scenario and the timing is the least certain part of it.

Alternative

Price accepts above the zone and the liquidity area on 4-hour closes. In that case the bullish break of structure is continuing rather than correcting, and the bearish working view is wrong.

Around the jobs report

Payrolls can trigger the liquidity sweep in either direction. The desk waits for 4-hour structure to form after the release rather than reacting to the first candle.

5. Invalidation

Sustained 4-hour acceptance above the liquidity area, roughly 4,190 to 4,200, invalidates the primary working view.

6. Review

Reviewed 7 November 2026. Payrolls beat strongly (+165,000 against about 65,000 expected). Gold swept sell-side liquidity to about 4,027, back below the 4,060–4,066 demand area, then reversed into the 4,071–4,087 supply zone, which held. The 4,190–4,200 invalidation was not reached, so the primary working view stands while price stays below about 4,085–4,088.

What the desk takes from it: the zones held, but the first move on the release was a liquidity sweep, not a trend, which supports waiting for 4-hour structure after the data. Full review: XAUUSD NFP Session Review, 6 November 2026.

Chart: TradingView, XAUUSD 4-hour, Paul Ngugi (youngtraderkd254), 5 November 2026.

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